econscius

Statistics Show 2009-12 The Weakest Economic Recovery Ever

In Economy, Obama Administration, Regulation, Unemployment on April 11, 2012 at 1:16 am

The worst economic recovery ever? 

Yes, this ‘recovery’ is worse than those following the Great Depression and the near depression of the 1980, 1981-2 double dip recessions.  Deep recessions are usually followed by broad-based booms.  Consumers and corporations have delayed needs that are typically fulfilled through accelerated purchases.  Twenty Twelve does not have a feel even remotely like robust 1984.  Few would refer to today as “Morning in America.” 

An excellent free piece (not behind the paywall) at the Wall Street Journal comes from Edward P. Lazear. [1]  Highlights follow:

The Great Depression started with major economic contractions in 1930, ’31, ’32 and ’33. In the three following years, the economy rebounded strongly with growth rates of 11%, 9% and 13%, respectively.

The current recovery began in the second half of 2009, but economic growth has been weak. Growth in 2010 was 3% and in 2011 it was 1.7%. Who knows what 2012 will bring, but the current growth rate looks to be about 2%, according to the consensus of economists recently polled by Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Sadly, we have never really recovered from the recession. The economy has not even returned to its long-term growth rate and is certainly not making up for lost ground.

Contrast this weak growth with the recovery that followed the other large recession of recent decades. In the early 1980s, the economy experienced a double-dip recession, with contractions in both 1980 and ’82. But growth rates in the subsequent two years averaged almost 6%. The high growth that persisted throughout the 1980s brought the economy quickly back to the trend line. Unlike the current period, from 1983 on, the economy was in rapid catch-up mode and eventually regained all that had been lost during the early ’80s.

It would be difficult to argue that government polices over the past three years have enhanced confidence in the U.S. business environment. Threats of higher taxes, the constantly increasing regulatory burden, the failure to pursue an aggressive trade policy that will open markets to U.S. exports, and the enormous increase in government spending all are growth impediments. Policies have focused on short-run changes and gimmicks—recall cash for clunkers and first-time home buyer credits—rather than on creating conditions that are favorable to investment that raise productivity and wages.

[1] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303816504577311470997904292.html

Pictures from Wikipedia Commons.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: